Reducing Opioid Use Disorder and Overdose Deaths in the United States: A Dynamic Modeling Analysis

The study used a national-level simulation model of the opioid crisis, SOURCE (Simulation of Opioid Use, Response, Consequences, and Effects), developed in collaboration with the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) (12). SOURCE is a compartmental feedback model that simulates the movement of the U.S. opioid-using population through opioid misuse, OUD, and remission; treatment with medications for OUD (MOUD); and nonfatal and fatal opioid overdose. SOURCE builds on other opioid-focused models (13–17). It endogenously reproduces historical trends from 1999 to 2020 and, where the data support it, includes the operational detail necessary to compare specific mechanisms. Also describes the effects of the 11 strategies on annual OUD prevalence and opioid overdose deaths and their effects on cumulative person-years of OUD and cumulative opioid overdose deaths from 2022 to 2032